Incerto

Why most organisations confuse resilience with antifragility, and why the difference matters

We built our institutions for a bell curve world, but we live in a world of extremes

The decay of modern institutions traces directly to the separation of decision-making from consequence-bearing

Across medicine, design, and policy, the most reliable path to improvement is removing what harms

The best strategies do not require you to predict the future; they require asymmetric positioning

Time is the ultimate filter. What has survived is what works, and we systematically ignore it